# Test 2a: Gross Flow Decomposition — Z₁ on Components, Pre vs Post

*If countervailing flows: Z₁ should predict assets and liabilities in offsetting directions post-opening.*

| Dependent Variable | Period | Z₁ | SE | p | Z₂ | p | R² | N |
|:---|:---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| Gross Assets | Pre | 420.251* | (247.658) | 0.093 | -59.157 | 0.133 | -0.200 | 110 |
| Gross Assets | Post | -364.071 | (266.185) | 0.172 | 58.711 | 0.140 | -0.085 | 310 |
| Gross Liabilities | Pre | 146.477 | (316.929) | 0.645 | -8.347 | 0.865 | 0.521 | 110 |
| Gross Liabilities | Post | -398.034 | (341.797) | 0.245 | 66.337 | 0.188 | 0.111 | 310 |
| FDI Assets | Pre | 218.097** | (86.147) | 0.013 | -27.777* | 0.052 | -0.407 | 110 |
| FDI Assets | Post | -193.997 | (199.469) | 0.332 | 33.665 | 0.260 | -0.039 | 310 |
| FDI Liabilities | Pre | 43.039 | (171.030) | 0.802 | 9.337 | 0.742 | 0.110 | 110 |
| FDI Liabilities | Post | -171.548 | (249.265) | 0.492 | 33.223 | 0.368 | 0.058 | 310 |
| Debt Assets | Pre | -26.835 | (179.576) | 0.882 | -0.616 | 0.982 | 0.088 | 110 |
| Debt Assets | Post | -207.771** | (104.225) | 0.047 | 35.452** | 0.022 | -0.141 | 310 |
| Debt Liabilities | Pre | 40.156 | (248.720) | 0.872 | -2.735 | 0.944 | 0.378 | 110 |
| Debt Liabilities | Post | -269.762** | (134.107) | 0.045 | 39.666** | 0.044 | 0.249 | 310 |
| FX Reserves | Pre | 215.443** | (92.323) | 0.022 | -27.099* | 0.071 | 0.103 | 110 |
| FX Reserves | Post | 33.878 | (72.775) | 0.642 | -8.091 | 0.449 | 0.083 | 310 |

## Offsetting Pattern Check

*Post-opening: assets and liabilities move in SAME direction → no offsetting pattern.*

*Controls: fiscal_bal_gdp, nfa_gdp_lag, trade_openness, log_rel_opw.*
*Transition economy openers only. PanelGLS with entity and time effects.*